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Trends

It is always difficult to forecast the future, but we can try to examine some of the forces that will shape it. We are enmeshed in those forces, so they are hard to recognize. Instead, we can look at trends and try to discern historical patterns that may extend into the future.

Hardware Technology Trends

Computing is unlike any other activity in history in its sustained progress. Computer metrics such as processor performance and storage capacity have been undergoing exponential growth for the past 20 years, and the trend is expected to continue for at least another 10 to 20 years. Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel, predicted in 1965 that the density of transistors on semiconductor chips would double roughly every 18 months. This prediction has been so accurate that it is called Moore's Law. Moore's Law isn't really a law, and staying on the curve has required inspired creativity and enormous capital. As a result, however, we face some nearly certain changes in the Internet environment.


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