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Chapter 5. Political, Seasonal, and Time... > Time Cycles: Four Days to Four Years

Time Cycles: Four Days to Four Years

Although they are not always apparent, there are a number of fairly regular wave patterns in the movements of stock prices that appear to be based upon time. There seem to be regular and repetitive cyclically determined time periods between low points, which is how cycles are defined. Frequently there are equal lengths of time from highs to highs as well within full market cycles, generally during neutral market periods, but cycle lengths are normally measured from lows to lows of market cycles.

Example of Market Cycles: The 53-Day Market Cycle

Chart 5.1 illustrates the concept of the stock market cycle. The vertical lines, placed at intervals of 53 trading sessions, appear to produce a fine fit with significant intermediate low areas for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index between 2002 and early 2004.


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