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Chapter 5. Political, Seasonal, and Time... > Calendar-Based Cycles in the Stock M...

Calendar-Based Cycles in the Stock Market

Related to time cycles, if not technically a cyclical phenomenon, certain days of the month, months of the year, and holiday-related seasonal patterns seem to be particularly related to the performance of the stock market. These relationships are neither precise nor perfect in their correlation with the movement of the stock market, so trading on the basis of cyclical patterns alone is not necessarily the best of strategies. However, using seasonal and time-cycle patterns to confirm trading decisions based on other indicators or to determine the likely general mood and risk levels of the stock market could be a fine application of the principle of synergy.

Days of the Month

The stock market has had a definite tendency to achieve its greatest gains during the last and next-to-last trading days of each month and the first two to four trading days of subsequent months (the exact combinations have varied somewhat over the years). In fact, gains in stocks during the favorable four- to five-day turn-of-the-month trading period have typically equaled gains in stocks during all the rest of monthly trading days combined.


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