Baseball: Thinking Outside the Batter's Box 109 A second chance for the World Series may not come soon for the Boston Red Sox. Had Grady Little played the numbers, they might have gotten their shot. For there is no doubt that an analysis of numbers, as evidenced by Bill James, Billy Beane, and John W. Henry, works as strategy for playing baseball. When Grady Little let Pedro continue pitching into the eighth in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Yankees, he provided the perfect demonstrator of why the Red Sox fired him after his second winning season in Boston. Little explained his move (which allowed the Yankees to tie and eventually win) after the game: "We trained him to work just like that deep into a game. When he tells me he has enough in the tank to keep going, that's the man I want out there. That's no different than what we've done the last two years." In fact, the stats said just the opposite. Pedro pitched into the eighth only five times in his 29 regular-season starts, and simply didn't pitch well after he'd thrown 100 pitches, the number he'd tossed before taking the mound in the eighth. In fact, during 2003, opponents' batting averages went up .139 after Pedro tossed his 105th pitch--strong evidence that he'd continue to weaken. That it would turn out badly was likely, as most everyone knew--and as the Red Sox computers knew. [30] The truth of a theory is in your mind, not in your eyes. --Albert Einstein [31] Key Points · John W. Henry: "Life is too dynamic to remain static." · If you have realistic confidence in your method and yourself, then temporary setbacks don't matter. Going for the home run can allow you to come out ahead in the long run. · Thinking in terms of odds is a common denominator of baseball and Trend Following.