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Part 1: The Techniques > Trend Discovery: Finding the Elements of Emerging Chan...

Chapter 2. Trend Discovery: Finding the Elements of Emerging Change

We seek the slightest edge, that one piece of information that improves our decision-making process. Even if that extra knowledge gives us an edge of a few days over the market as a whole, we can beat the averages and improve performance.

As desirable an idea as the elusive market edge is, it simply does not exist. In spite of the high volume of promotions that show up in your mailbox, e-mail, or as pop-up ads on Web sites, market success comes down to identifying a few important indicators and then interpreting them with better than average insight. This requires that you understand the nature of emerging trends, often a subtle but valuable skill. Even with the array of available information out there, most people still don't apply knowledge to their decisions. The tendency is to follow the popular beliefs, so anyone who is able to break away from this crowd mentality gains an edge. Since the majority times its decisions poorly, taking a different approach makes sense. You need to discover trends and then determine what they mean and how they affect long-term investment value.


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