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Endnotes

1.Brad Barber, Reuven Lehavy, Maureen McNichols, and Brett Trueman, 2001, “Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance, 56(2), pp. 531–563.
2.Brad Barber, Reuven Lehavy, Maureen McNichols, and Brett Trueman, 2001, “Prophets and Losses: Reassessing the Returns to Analysts' Stock Recommendations,” University of California, Berkeley, working paper, May.
3.Roni Michaely and Kent Womack, 1999, “Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations,” Review of Financial Studies, 12(4), pp. 653–686.
4.David Dreman, 2001, “The Role of Psychology in Analysts' Estimates,” Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 2(2), pp. 66–68.
5.Walter Hamilton, 2001, “Wall Street Analysts Cry 'Sell' at Their Own Peril,” The Los Angeles Times, August 19, p. A1.
6.Georgette Jansen, 2001, “Investment Dartboard: Dart Snag Stocks that Gain 38.6%, Far Ahead of Pros,” The Wall Street Journal, February 15, p. C1.
7.Bing Liang, 1999, “Price Pressure: Evidence from the 'Dartboard' Column,” Journal of Business, 72(1), pp. 119–134.
8.The abnormal returns are also adjusted for the level of risk of the stock. Riskier stocks should demand a higher return. The risk adjustment was done using traditional event-study methodology using the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
9.Georgette Jasen, 2001, “Investment Dartboard: Pros, Dart Throwers and Readers Post Losses,” The Wall Street Journal, August 8, p. C1.
10.Hemang Desai and Prem Jain, 1995, “An Analysis of the Recommendations of the 'Superstar' Money Managers at Barron's Annual Roundtable,” Journal of Finance, 50(4), pp. 1257–1273.
11.Lisa Reilly Cullen, 2000, “What Happened to Value Line?” Money Magazine, September, pp. 97–101.
12.James Choi, 2000, “The Value Line Enigma: The Sum of Known Parts?” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(3), pp. 485–498.
13.Lisa Reilly Cullen, 2000, “What Happened to Value Line?” Money Magazine, September, pp. 97–101.
14.Don Chance and Michael Hemler, 2001, “The Performance of Professional Market Timers: Daily Evidence from Executed Strategies,” Journal of Financial Economics, 62(2), pp. 377–411.
15.Andrew Metrick, 1999, “Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters,” Journal of Finance, 54(6), pp. 1743–1775.
16.Roger Clarke and Meir Statman, 1998, “Bullish or Bearish?” Financial Analysts Journal, May/June, pp. 63–72.
17.William Goetzmann and Massimo Massa, 2001, “Index Funds and Stock Market Growth,” Journal of Business (in press).
18.Georgette Jasen, 1992, “Inside Track: Four Executives Display Good Timing on Stock Moves,” The Wall Street Journal, August 19, p. C1.
19.Josef Lakonishok and Inmoo Lee, 2001, “Are Insider Trades Informative?” Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), pp. 79–111.
20.Werner F. M. De Bondt, 1991, “What Do Economists Know About the Stock Market?” Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter, pp. 84–91.
21.Actually, Carlyle coined this often-used phrase after he read the dire predictions of the early economic thinker Thomas Robert Malthus, who argued that population growth would outstrip food production, leading to mass famine. Since then, economics is frequently called the dismal science (probably most frequently by students).
22.Ivo Welch, 2000, “Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies,” Journal of Business, 73(4), pp. 501–537.
23.Ivo Welch, 2001, “The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited,” Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper #1325, Yale University, September.



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