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Streaks

The predictions you make from the patterns you identify are affected by whether you believe the outcome is random or not. The assumption in gambling is that the game is random or fair. The gambler's fallacy is one outcome of that assumption. However, what if we think the game is not random? In this case, people have a tendency to project the continuation of trends instead of their reversal.

A good example is the streak shooting of basketball players. Making baskets does not seem like a random event. Indeed, we want our team to feed the ball to the player with “the hot hand.” This expression supports the belief that a player is more likely to make a shot after having made several previous shots. In a survey of basketball fans, 91% believed that a player has a better chance of making a shot after having just made his last two or three shots than he does after having just missed shots.[2] In addition, 84% of the fans believed that it is important to pass the ball to someone who has just made several shots in a row.


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