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1.For some good examples of the gambler's fallacy, see Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, 1971, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,” Psychological Bulletin, 76(2), pp. 105–110.
2.This basketball example is reported in Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky, 1985, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences,” Cognitive Psychology, 17, pp. 295–314.
3.Werner De Bondt, 1993, “Betting on Trends: Intuitive Forecasts of Financial Risk and Return,” International Journal of Forecasting, 9, pp. 355–371.
4.Burton Gordon Malkiel, 2000, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 7th Edition, W.W. Norton & Company, June.
5.Gardner, David and Gardner, Tom, 1996, The Motley Fool Investment Guide: How the Fool Beats Wall Street's Wise Men and How You Can Too, Simon & Schuster, January.
6.O'Higgins, Michael and Downes, John, 1991, Beating the Dow : A High-Return, Low-Risk Method for Investing in the Dow-Jones Industrial Stocks with As Little As $5,000, HarperCollins, January.
7.Knowles, Harvey C. and Petty, Damon H., 1992, The Dividend Investor: A Safe, Sure Way to Beat the Market, Probus Publishing Company, January.
8.McQueen, Grant and Thorley, Steven, 1999, “Mining Fool's Gold,” Financial Analysts Journal, March/April, pp. 61–72.
9.Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2001, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, Texere, October.
10.These numbers and probabilities are reported in Alan Marcus, 1990, “The Magellan Fund and Market Efficiency,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall, pp. 85–88.
11.For a good discussion, see Meir Statman and Jonathan Scheid, 2001, “Buffett in Foresight and Hindsight,” Santa Clara University working paper, April.



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