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Part Two: How Do You Make Decisions? > Are You Overconfident?

Chapter Ten. Are You Overconfident?

For each of the following 10 items, provide a low and high guess so that you are 90 percent sure the correct answer falls between the two guesses. Your challenge is to be neither too narrow nor too wide.[1]

 90% Confidence Range
 LowHigh
  1. Martin Luther King Jr.’s age at death

________________
  1. Length of the Nile River

________________
  1. Number of countries that are full members of OPEC

________________
  1. Number of books in the Old Testament

________________
  1. Diameter of the moon in miles

________________
  1. Weight of an empty Boeing 747 (in pounds)

________________
  1. Year in which Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart was born

________________
  1. Gestation period (in days) of an Asian elephant

________________
  1. Air distance from London to Tokyo

________________
  1. Deepest known point in the ocean (in feet)

________________



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