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Part Three: Common Biases and Errors Tha... > I Knew It All The Time: The Hindsigh...

Chapter Twenty-Six. I Knew It All The Time: The Hindsight Bias

Hindsight is an exact science.

G. Bellamy

Darren and Jenny were on their first trip to France. After spending a week in Paris, they rented a car and began a five-day tour of the Loire Valley. Darren agreed to drive as long as Jenny would do the navigating. Armed with several maps and her English-French dictionary, Jenny began plotting their route. However, not more than an hour out of Paris, the couple was having trouble finding the road that would take them to their first stop in Montrichard. They pulled over to a rest stop, and together they studied the maps. Nothing made much sense. Jenny thought they should take N20. Darren wasn’t convinced. “The maps sure aren’t clear,” said Darren. “I don’t know. Maybe we’d be better off to take the road marked N152.” Jenny continued to argue for N20. Darren acquiesced, and they followed Jenny’s suggestion. An hour and a half later, they finally made it to Montrichard. As they were checking in to their hotel, Darren told the hotel concierge how they had gotten lost and how difficult it was to follow N20. The concierge then explained that they would have made the trip in half the time if they had taken Route N152. Turning to Jenny, Darren exclaimed, “I knew it! I told you that N152 was the right road to take, but you wouldn’t listen to me.” Jenny shook her head and quietly muttered, “Yeah, Darren, now you’re sure, but you weren’t so sure a few hours ago!”


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