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Part Three: Common Biases and Errors Tha... > Seeing Patterns That Aren’t There: C...

Chapter Twenty-One. Seeing Patterns That Aren’t There: Coping with Randomness

We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like?

E. Satie

The stock market goes up 100 points, and the analysts are quick to tell us that “low inflation and strong consumer confidence” is driving the market up. The next day, the market drops 100 points, and those same analysts tell us the reason is “low inflation is likely to hurt corporate profits and there’s increasing fears that the consumer will cut back spending because of heavy debt loads.”


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