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Part Three: Common Biases and Errors Tha... > How Can You Be So Darn Sure About Th...

Chapter Twelve. How Can You Be So Darn Sure About That? Coping with Overconfidence

It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.

J. Billings

You can’t overestimate people’s confidence in their opinions. Even experts in their field often think they know more than they do. A few famous quotes illustrate just how off the mark even the “best and the brightest” can be:


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