• Create BookmarkCreate Bookmark
  • Create Note or TagCreate Note or Tag
  • PrintPrint

Summary

Forecasting can be trappy. To create a good forecast, you need a well-measured, well-defined baseline of data. You should use the suggestions made in this chapter to choose the most appropriate approach (moving average, regression, smoothing, or Box-Jenkins). At times, your baseline might not suggest an appropriate method, and you might need to wait for a longer baseline before you can be confident of your forecast.

Even if you feel you've done everything right, conditions have a way of changing unexpectedly—making your careful forecast look like a blind guess. Be sure to regard your forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticism. The more variables you have to work with, the more ways there are to view the future. Changes in one forecast can tip you off to the possibility that another forecast is about to change.


PREVIEW

                                                                          

Not a subscriber?

Start A Free Trial


  
  • Creative Edge
  • Create BookmarkCreate Bookmark
  • Create Note or TagCreate Note or Tag
  • PrintPrint